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| Mr Goh Meng Seng, ex-SG of NSP, and still taking an active interest in Singaporean politics from his current-day vantage point of Hong Kong |
This is approximately the MID Term point of the present parliamentary
term if you believe the next General Election will be held in 2015.
Before I start to write this article, there are three interesting Political News and happening in Singapore:
1) One of the most promising political star in SDP, Dr Vincent Wijeysingha has call it a quit over LGBT issues.
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| Dr. Vincent Wijeysingha (ex-SDP) |
2)
PAP has announced its latest promotion of ministers. Chan Chun Sing has
been promoted while Tan Chuan Jin has unexpectedly missed out of this
promotion exercise.
3) WP has announced the new co-option of
three members into its CEC. One of them was a candidate in GE 2011 while
the other two are relatively new "elites". One of them is a lawyer
while the other is an Associate Professor lecturing in NUS.
4)
For NSP, after half a year of neglect of their website (yes, no updates,
not even on CEC information), they have started to act. However, some
curious things I have observed. The Secretary General Hazel is missing
in action for all NSP recent activities, so is her husband Tony Tan.
Even for important press statement, it was issued by Nicole Seah, the
second aassistant secretary, not Hazel. On the other hand, Apparently,
the newly co-opted CEC member cum Head of Media Team is missing from the
CEC list as well.
These are the four main political parties
(sorry for the exclusion of the others, including SPP, DPP and others)
that I am going to examine at this Half Way Point.
Post-LKY ERA
The
context of present situations is Post-LKY ERA. What will happen or how
things will develop with the final phase of POST-LKY ERA in the making?
It is clear by the day that the days that Singapore will live without
the physical presence of LKY will come soon. Transitions into such era
or even into change of ruling power have been discussed openly and
intensely recently. The fundamental questions are:
1) Will PAP break with the passing of LKY? 2) Will PAP lose power after LKY pass on? 3) How will the political landscape change with the passing of LKY?
LKY
has stepped down right after GE2011 along with Goh Chok Tong. There are
common whispers that he did it in order to use his last influence to
clear out the main internal challenge posed by the "GCT Camp" to his
son's rule. This is just like old kungfu show that the old master uses
his last political breathe to save his disciple from the great opponent,
killing both the master and the opponent altogether.
The recent
promotion exercise is also seen as a bid to look for someone
"acceptable" by the Lee camp to take over as Prime Minister once the
present PM Lee steps down. Apparently, Chan Chun Sing and Heng Swee Kiat
are the front runners while some people think that Lawrence Wong may be
the third contender.
Many people say that Heng Swee Kiat is
"intelligent" guy and he should be the PM. But I beg to differ. LKY
wasn't the smartest (as compared to Dr Goh Keng Swee) among his peers
back in the 1960s, neither was he the most charismatic (as compared to
Lim Ching Song) but he became the PM. Leadership cannot be built upon
intelligence alone. Dr Goh Keng Swee might be the smartest guy among his
peers but he lacked the charisma, especially public speaking skills, to
be Prime Minister. Intelligence alone is only a necessary but
insufficient condition for Prime Minister-ship. As for Chan Chun Sing, I
cannot imagine us, Singapore, to have a Kee Chiu General to be our
Prime Minister.
In fact, I think Tan Chuan Jin, who has been
left out of promotion this time round, has the few critical criteria to
become the next Prime Minister. He is a "thinking" minister who can make
amends to his positions from time to time to suit changes in various
situations. Although it is unfortunate that he has to face a couple of
crisis in these couple of years which he may not have handled
exceptionally well, but from my observations, he can make necessary
reflections and adjustments quite responsively instead of sticking to
stagnant stance like former MND Mah BT who kept insist on his HDB
pricing strategy and policy even though many people have shown him that
his HDB policy is really screwed.
But nevertheless, whoever
tries to become the next Prime Minister under PAP will definitely find
himself in the worst position in history. PAP is after all, a "sunset
party" and what it has relied heavily upon, the total monopoly of power
and assurance of winning elections on every seats have diminished. It
will find itself more and more difficult to recruit talented people to
join them because they can no longer fulfill their promise easily as
there will no longer be a "sure win" elections even under GRC system.
In
view of that, it would naturally be a regression down hill development
for PAP into mediocrity as it can only attract second or even third rate
candidates in subsequent GE.
PAP: Epoch Change?
Apart
from such development, on numerous occasions, PAP leaders have
reiterated that they have changed and will make efforts to revamp their
various policies. Most important of all, they are saying they will
listen, starting with "National Conversation".
The government
controlled (yes, it is a direct physical control via Press Act, giving
government management ownership and huge voting rights) SPH and Main
Stream Media (MSM) have hailed PM Lee's recent policy announcements made
in his National Day Rally as "Epoch" changes made but is that really
so?
Well, to continue to work towards 6.9 million population is
anything but Epoch change. Having just a tiny tweak to their
multi-million dollar ministerial salaries to yet, multi-million dollar
ministerial salaries isn't really big change at all.
All
these are more like Public Relations exercise rather than any serious
game changer kind of policy shifts. Look, calling their tweaks in
healthcare policy as "Universal Healthcare Insurance" scheme is just a
bad attempt to hoodwink Singaporeans. Giving more HDB grants doesn't
change the fact that their pricing mechanism is the key primary problem
of spiral prices that have made asset inflation out of tune with normal
inflation and salary increments for the middle-lower class.
The
bare truth is, Singaporeans continue to face the fundamental problems
caused by PAP's reckless population planning which causes runaway asset
inflation, runaway healthcare cost coupled with inadequate hospital
beds, break down in public transport system especially for MRT and not
to mention the constant flooding due to over-urbanization and Marina
Barrage which was created to cope with higher water demand.
Most
importantly, apart from the horrendous 6.9m population policy, their
tweaks at Housing policy, healthcare and transport policies
aren't exactly anything revolutionary at all.
This is especially
true for HDB housing policy. Minister Khaw BW has tried his very best
to deliver his promise of delivering 13,000 flats or so for this year
but what he did not realize that housing problem is a long term
stablizing problem. First and foremost, we need a total revamp of the
wrong concept of taking HDB flats as an "investment". HDB is a home, not
an investment. Secondly, we must make sure that HDB price
inflation should not be higher than income increment trend. This will
need a total revamp of the pricing mechanism. Third most important point
is that HDB land pricing should not be used as a forever input into our
Reserves. There is absolutely no reasons to pursue an indefinite growth
in Reserves.
Has PAP turned the tide?
How
successful is PAP in turning adverse public opinion against it? Some
people opined that although PAP didn't really make great changes in
these key areas but it has managed to convince and woo middle ground
skeptics. I am not so sure that the middle ground could be so easily woo
over.
This is especially so when PAP's crisis management skills
are rather bad. This is especially so when the HAZE broke out, they
couldn't even get their logistics right to deliver the masks on time as
promised. Not to say about the weather warning mechanism is totally out
of date and serve no purpose in safeguarding citizens' lives. Not for
the HAZE warning system, neither for heavy rain and flood warning
system.
If PAP cannot get both immediate
crisis management, governance and future forward looking policy
direction right, I am afraid that it has started to roll down the
slippery slope of mediocrity. Pure lack of competency and Vision for the
future will be PAP's undoing for the next GE. PAP used to provide basic
fundamental competency at daily management and administration of the
various systems in Singapore. At least, train doesn't break down that
often, flooding doesn't occur that often as well, neither do we have
constant crunch on hospital beds as well as public buses and train. I am
afraid that all these basic competency has been replaced by
complacency.
PAP has never been good at crisis management. I
remember during the crisis of Silk Air 185 crash incident back in 1997,
the then Transport Minister Mah BT was so stressed up that he actually
blew his top on reporters. Now that we have all sorts of small and big
crisis from time to time, ministers just acted in a reactive manner.
They are just treating problems in isolation instead of taking a more
holistic approach. In Chinese, we call that "脚痛医脚，头痛医头“, literally mean
when the leg pain, just treat the leg, headache, just treat the head. It
seems that their ability of "Helicopter View" has crashed landed.
I
suspect PAP has got its priorities all wrong right from the top. Growth
at all cost is still the master guiding principle. The push for 6.9m
population plan is one glaring example of such "strategic thinking".
To
make matter worse for PAP, its GOLDEN MANTRA "Whiter than White" has
been put in serious doubt by various incidents. Integrity and Morality
are something MORE than legality. What seems to be "legal" may not mean
it is done with Morality and Integrity intact.
Apart from the
many big and small scandals on TOP civil servants taking bribes, the AIM
saga makes PAP looks even worse, putting doubts aimed directly at its
core value of "Whiter than White". Well, some may even put Michael
Palmer saga as part of this deterioration and erosion of Core Value of
PAP but we should not forget what happens to WP's YSL saga as well.
The
most important implication of these scandals is directed at the Core
Management Principle of PAP : High Pay = Eliminate Corruptions. Well,
some may view that as "legalized corruptions" but it doesn't matter now.
It would also mean that alternative system or methods should be
explored to upkeep a clean system.
It simply means that we can
no longer depend on an authoritarian system which pays its political
appointees and civil servants high pay to ensure clean governance. The
CORE Values of Democracy, Separation of POWERS should be established to
enhance checks and balances on the various organs of governance to
enhance clean management.
Apart from that, the concept of
"conflict of interests" should be instilled and boundaries of good
practices should be established. Due to the authoritarian nature of
PAP's rule, the concept of "conflict of interests" has never been
institutionalized as part of our Rule of Law, if any. With the
empowerment of Internet Era, I think increasing demands on transparency,
accountability and good governance will naturally raise expectation on
what constitutes "Rule of Law" and "good management practices". But it
seems that both PAP and WP failed to realize or understand such a shift
on popular expectations.
On the other hand, PAP seems to be
confused by its own promise of "light touch" approach to public opinions
expressed on the internet by throwing spanners, threats of law suits,
criminal persecution etc etc on bloggers, cartoonists and activists at
large. It would be seen in a very bad contrasting light whereby PAP is
lax towards its own morality and integrity while exercising draconian
precision attacks on little errors made by citizens. In Chinese, this
amount to "宽己严人", i.e. strict towards others while lax towards its own
kind.
Conclusion
If PAP is determined to regain some ground it has lost, it should seriously reflect upon itself on all these grounds:
1)
Readjustment to their Philosophy and Ideology of Governance, thus
really revamp their various policies towards the new philosophical or
ideological directions.
2) Improve their competency at governance, including crisis management.
3)
There is a serious need to rethink on the issues of Integrity,
Morality, Transparency, Accountability and Good Practices. It would mean
to institutionalize Separation of Powers and strengthen the Rule of Law
by putting more emphasis on issues of Conflict of Interests.
4)
Whether PAP likes it or not, the internet or the New Media has become
the important Fourth Institution of emerging Democracy in Singapore and
it will replace PAP's controlled MSM totally if PAP still have any
fantasy about using MSM as its propaganda tool or mouth piece. If PAP
chose to revert to its old dictatorial ways of dealing with dissenting
voices, it would end up losing more seats and power even more rapidly
than it could imagine. It will have to relearn Public Relationship and
Media management instead of relying on obedient, compliant media,
editors and reporters to save them from public embarrassment.
Last
but not least, I give PAP an E as a ruling party which failed to evolve
and adapt to the new reality on the ground as well as the internet.
Goh Meng Seng
[This post was first published by Goh Meng Seng and reproduced here with his kind written permission]
